Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 99279.297733 104618.691685 109952.505497 115677.032725 121643.371563 127674.833516 134229.375472
2025-10-12 91289.889154 99519.452801 107964.218034 117266.821616 127215.851730 137526.350026 149008.208696
2025-10-19 85151.062873 95355.361696 106050.357242 118073.508527 131190.749252 145044.897622 160760.974183
2025-10-26 79987.704389 91629.905542 104050.947177 118253.050339 134004.867972 150902.641256 170362.390805
2025-11-02 75952.748686 88756.170628 102629.899624 118727.659558 136836.977228 156524.146417 179488.422649
2025-11-09 72219.251445 85937.030926 101012.586164 118738.114796 138933.776664 161151.225946 187362.945408
2025-11-16 69708.754158 84319.670321 100581.963467 119931.092110 142227.750291 167015.919521 196554.933436
2025-11-23 66717.279260 81977.183061 99168.991603 119855.941329 143950.784825 171004.449909 203547.033494
2025-11-30 65009.781766 81024.964492 99266.799716 121441.304254 147517.908435 177056.525815 212885.951153
2025-12-07 63154.739422 79797.785840 98955.278256 122469.622680 150375.246199 182251.134933 221221.021328
2025-12-14 60898.922392 77990.431666 97868.244076 122498.778141 151989.568452 185950.212015 227785.487672
2025-12-21 58924.142225 76439.243232 97011.245920 122732.200435 153788.233569 189825.582347 234537.180366
2025-12-28 57917.593911 76048.199675 97540.623882 124639.004019 157614.784856 196151.803436 244281.360536
2026-01-04 56786.964765 75457.064931 97790.570414 126181.740353 160994.836669 201960.008682 253450.342670
2026-01-11 55370.714314 74452.993810 97486.069791 127005.663554 163475.359433 206681.266551 261329.584201
2026-01-18 53727.377536 73103.052974 96700.838544 127189.047734 165136.040765 210392.774326 267988.649097
2026-01-25 52332.800628 72019.862026 96203.886106 127691.227401 167159.823622 214530.128318 275168.420187
2026-02-01 50785.478520 70688.656475 95348.494614 127701.972844 168541.006363 217863.205818 281363.536854
2026-02-08 49895.904600 70178.187249 95505.680564 128968.069735 171476.691053 223107.117597 289925.509422
2026-02-15 48449.985070 68893.559367 94632.963483 128888.294677 172693.376530 226212.186331 295847.871277
2026-02-22 47847.744065 68700.660788 95147.138904 130570.729215 176134.706127 232090.624986 305241.180394
2026-03-01 47022.439642 68182.304739 95216.077614 131661.887482 178816.218420 237025.705912 313481.790951
2026-03-08 45789.247536 67079.668546 94489.680319 131692.823020 180120.484655 240222.846570 319550.207953